At the Republican National Convention last night, Donald Trump announced his running mate: J.D. Vance.
This comes after a period of huge turmoil in the presidential race, which began with Biden’s performance in the debate that led to calls for him to step aside, and was shockingly punctuated on the weekend when a would-be assassin’s bullet ripped through Trump’s ear.
The result is that whereas a month ago Biden was still seen as fully in the running, Trump is now the overwhelming favorite. For Taiwan, planning for a Trump presidency must now intensify, and consideration of a Vance vice presidency can commence.
As another Donald might say, for Taiwan Trump is a “known unknown.” It’s very hard to predict what a second term would mean for Taiwan. On the one hand, his first term treated the country well, with a phone call to Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), more weapons sales and a more aggressive approach towards China. Many Taiwanese love him for it and hope that he is reelected.
On the other hand, Trump has always favored a transactional foreign policy — the art of the deal. But the trade deal with China from his first term hasn’t worked out that well for America. He has also expressed admiration for Xi Jinping (習近平) and his ilk. Plus there is the isolationist strand to his America First approach. These are all factors that should concern Taiwan.
With this in mind, the team Trump puts around himself gains importance not only because their politics might be more predictable, but also because they will have the opportunity to influence the actions of the administration.
The VP choice is the first chance to see a key Trump pick in this light. It is also, let’s make no bones about it, a first clear view of a man who may very well become president before 2028.
In an interview yesterday after his nomination, Vance firmly outlined his and Trump’s stance on China. Vance said Trump would negotiate to end the war in Ukraine so that America can focus on the real issue, China, which he described as the biggest threat to America, Bloomberg reported,
These statements echo previous ones he has made. Last year The Daily Signal reported that Vance said “Joe Biden is not sending weapons to Taiwan, weapons that we promised the Taiwanese, because we’re sending those weapons to Ukraine or elsewhere.”
“The thing that we need to prevent more than anything is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.”
These words, also from the same speech at the Heritage Foundation’s 50th Anniversary Leadership Summit that The Daily Signal was reporting on, will be music to Taipei’s ears, but discordant for Beijing. Markets in Hong Kong dropped after the news of the Vance pick was announced.
Vance has also sponsored legislation that could restrict China from accessing American financial markets and has called Japan and India the U.S.’s “two most important allies in countering China.” It’s also worth noting that Vance is a veteran, a former Marine. Does that engender a more Pacific outlook?
It appears that Vance holds quite firmly to the position that China is both an adversary and a threat to America. Indeed, he would seem to be much more firmly in this camp than Trump is. However, there will clearly be some choppy waters for Taipei to navigate.
TECRO, the Taiwan representative office in Washington, is going to have to build ties with Vance and his staff fast, especially because until recently Vance was not seen as a favorite for the nomination. It’s unfortunate that he wasn’t able to visit Taipei in the past year.
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s (賴清德) administration is also going to have to prepare for some deft handling of the issue of its own support for Ukraine. Since Russia’s invasion, Taiwan has been steadfast alongside other democracies. If Trump is elected and does reduce support for Kyiv for Taipei then Lai will not want to be seen to look a gift horse in the mouth, but to turn away from Ukraine would threaten new ties with European partners.
The solution might well be hedging. European capitals are going to face a similar problem after all. There will also be a small voice in the back of Lai’s mind asking, “If first Ukraine, then later Taiwan?” In some of Vance’s reported quotes about Taiwan, one can detect the idea that years later when the U.S. has rebuilt its chip-making capacity the issue might be less existential.
Ultimately, trust works both ways. If the next U.S. administration is Trump-Vance, it is going to have to work hard to reassure Taiwanese that America First does not preclude them.
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