The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) now has the whip hand in Taiwan’s arms sales negotiations.
Last week the KMT unveiled its own special defense budget, fully funding the U.S.’s $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, and pledging relatively unconditional support for future arms sales as well.
It was an interesting turn-around for a party that many had accused of trying to block Taiwan’s defense spending increases.
Right now, all three major parties in Taiwan have proposed their own special defense budgets, and with no single party having a majority in Taiwan’s parliament, there will have to be some cooperation between at least two of the parties to pass any one special budget.
If not, the deadlock will continue, as it has done for months now. In this situation, the blame will fall onto the KMT and its coalition partner the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), as it has done for months now.
But this perception gives the KMT a chance to flip the narrative, and turn lead into gold.
Given that folks know that the KMT’s legislators are capable of blocking the budget, remind them that the path to passing it runs through the KMT.
Suddenly a whole bunch of interesting people in Maryland and Virginia will be beating down your door. The conversation shifts entirely.
Instead of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) dominating the flow of information from Taipei to the U.S., this would give the KMT the chance to take back control and tell its own story about the Republic of China once again.
But there are two challenges to overcome.
First, this will only work if Americans believe the KMT isn’t trying to sabotage Taiwan’s defense. Funding the $11 billion arms sale in its own special defense budget is a pretty big show of faith that that is the case.
Second, the KMT has to get much better at communicating … with everyone.
Insulting U.S. senators and the U.S. representative in Taiwan has to stop, now. Better yet, cut loose Vice Chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen (蕭旭岑), who made those remarks.
Send more legislators to Washington to explain the KMT’s position, and make sure the KMT office there is earning its keep. It’s well-reported that the DPP has already negotiated the next arms sale, which is being held up by the White House. That’s a chance to get in there and renegotiate it in your favor, or at least learn what you’ll be arguing over later.
The party also needs to do a better job of explaining to the Taiwanese public what its position on defense actually is. If you are going to support the arms sale eventually, you should be there from the beginning. Don’t let people think you’ve been dragged there by U.S. pressure.
“No blank check for $40 billion” is an entirely reasonable position, but only if people believe you will cash four carefully written checks for $10 billion each.
Finally, there needs to be more communication with Taiwan’s defense ministry. The military should not be putting out press releases saying your special budget is spending money in the wrong places.
And if China threatens to cancel that oh-so-special meeting between Xi Jinping (習近平) and your new chairwoman, Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文), in Beijing? Just point out that the only way the KMT takes back the presidency in 2028 is if you don’t totally blow it in the next two years by looking too red. Taiwanese voters aren’t going to support a party that won’t fund their defense.
The KMT has been sidelined in Washington for too long. A little bit of arms sale diplomacy is the perfect medicine.
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