Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Beijing yesterday for talks that the Chinese press described as “a trustworthy strategic partner.” He might as well not have bothered.
China is seen by many as a friend of Iran. Beijing invited Tehran into the BRICS grouping. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi (王毅) said while meeting Araghchi that China supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security.
But how much is Chinese friendship worth? Iran already has some inkling of the answer, given that China has, by its own account, refused to supply it with weapons during its defense against U.S. and Israeli attack.
But look a little further back for an even more apathetic case study.
Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro was abducted from Caracas by U.S. special forces on the night of January 2. His last meeting prior to this?
An audience with the Chinese Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Latin American Affairs Qiu Xiaoqi (邱小琪).
Qiu told Maduro that China and Venezuela are proven strategic partners. What he didn’t tell him might have been more important. For example, it’s self-evident that he did not say there would be a raid that night.
In the pictures of Maduro with Qiu, the special representative is holding a delicate amphora-like pot, evidently a gift. It brings to mind a Chinese wolf-warrior diplomatic saying:
“When friends visit us, we welcome them with fine wine. When jackals or wolves come, we will face them with shotguns.”
You have to think that on January 2, Maduro would rather that China had sent some shotguns.
Incidentally, this specific quote of the proverb is attributable to Li Shangfu (李尚福), the former Chinese defense minister. Li was sentenced to death today by a Chinese court for accepting and giving bribes. Luckily for him, there is little chance of the sentence being carried out, otherwise he might truly have ended up as the wolf in the story.
Araghchi would do well to think about the value of Chinese gifts, about wine and shotguns. Despite repeated assertions that Iran is fielding advanced air defense systems, there is no evidence they were ever delivered (or indeed ordered).
President Donald Trump recently accused China of trying to send a ship to China carrying “some things on it, which wasn’t very nice.” Reuters understood that the ship was believed to be carrying dual use items, with some undeniable military purpose.
The ship was, according to Trump, “a gift from China, perhaps.” If it was, they might have wrapped it with a little more care, given how easy it was for the U.S. to seize. China, of course, denies the accusation.
The world has become a more dangerous place for smaller countries in recent years. American allies are finding that Washington is a more complicated friend than it used to be. But at least they still get their shotguns, for the most part.
China has no allies, and it should be more and more obvious to those who court it as a friend or security partner that when their need is greatest the relationship will suddenly be at its weakest.
When friends need China to put some skin in the game, Beijing usually stops playing.
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