Last night the two U.S. presidential candidates squared off in a debate for the first time. Many of us were tuning in hoping to get more insight into their foreign policies or even better their specific approaches to China.
We probably wouldn’t get a plan, but we might get concepts of a plan, right?
Well, not really.
“China” was mentioned 13 times in the debate, according to the transcript. However, none of those mentions was in response to a question about China, or even about foreign policy. China was mentioned on three occasions. The first was by both candidates in response to a question on the economy, the second was by Trump when he cited how world leaders perceived him, and the third was again by Trump in response to a question on climate change. In total, Trump mentioned China ten times and Harris mentioned China three times (Trump also mentioned Taiwan once in the context of chips).
If you are reading this, you are most probably, like me, a foreign policy nerd. You almost certainly care more about American policy towards China than 99% of American voters. As much as we wish it were otherwise, foreign policy is an issue that typically doesn’t get a lot of attention in elections, even though it often takes up a lot of the attention of administrations.
During the debate, the candidates were asked questions on support for Ukraine, on the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the war in Gaza. Arguably, international affairs got its fair shake. And yet, the fact that there was no question on China, and that candidates only brought up China when it intruded into other topics, is concerning.
Correctly handling, or rather not mishandling, the relationship with China is going to be the foreign policy challenge for the next administration. Americans deserve to hear how their candidates intend to do so, and Americans also need to hear their leaders speak honestly about how they perceive the “China challenge” or even the China threat. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have asked the American people to undergo a certain amount of economic pain to pursue trade wars or industrial policy.
It’s entirely possible that the next president may have to ask American service men and women to fight in a conflict with China – it’s absurd that this would not be addressed during the campaign.
As noted above, Trump mentioned China ten times to Harris’s three. If we look a little further back and consider their convention nomination acceptance speeches, we can see that in that case Trump mentioned China 14 times and Harris only once (although Trump did speak for almost three times the length of time Harris did!). Trump appears much more comfortable to turn to China as a topic and to use China as an example, a piece of evidence or even just a rhetorical crutch in political debate.
Clearly, as a former president who dealt with China for four often tumultuous years, Trump has more direct experience to draw on. And conversely Harris’s political career has mostly been focused on the domestic rather than international fronts. Domino Theory summarized her positions on Taiwan to date when Biden withdrew from the race, and the summary of that summary is that we don’t have much to go on (but she should be expected to be a continuity candidate). Indeed, it’s been reported that Harris has never even been to China.
On the other hand, she has selected a running mate in Walz who has a wealth of China experience going back decades. Nevertheless, we need to hear more from her directly that she has a clear conception of China’s place in the challenges America faces. Many reading this will remember Obama underestimating the importance of Russia during the 2012 race.
Although Trump brings that first-hand experience, he is hardly invulnerable to attack on the China front. He views the PRC as a country that he beat economically and dissuaded militarily. These are positions that can be attacked. He has spoken about Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in glowing personal terms. That should be an open goal for Harris.
The campaign has two more months to run. The candidates have another head to head in October. Let’s hope that for all our sakes we get more than the slim pickings available so far in terms of China policy.
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