The DPP opened its national campaign headquarters for Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election on December 3. Prominent DPP figures including Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文); Premier Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁); former premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌); Taipei City Campaign Headquarters Director Chen Shih-chung (陳時中); and the chairman of the DPP’s national campaign headquarters, Yao Li-ming (姚立明), were at the opening ceremony to support presidential and vice presidential candidates Lai Ching-te (賴清德) and Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴). Taiwan’s Liberty Times reports the event saw more than 10,000 supporters show up to support the candidates.
Lai and Hsiao have been making appearances on various local YouTuber’s programs, with the United Daily News covering the story under the headline “Lai attempts to use internet influencer to attract votes from the younger generation.”
Former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) on Thursday agreed to join KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih’s (侯友宜) campaign as the head of his supporters’ group. Hou said the addition of Wang will help consolidate the support he needs.
In a televised interview on Wednesday, Taiwan People’s Party’s (TPP) presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) outlined his foreign and military policies. He said he plans to follow current President Tsai Ing-wen’s approach, but he will express more goodwill when dealing with China. My-Formosa.com chairman Wu Tzu-chia (吳子嘉) then criticized Ko for pretending to be deep green in order to gain support.
Japanese scholar Ogasawara Yoshiyuki (小笠原欣幸) recently published an analysis evaluating the November polls conducted by different pollsters. According to his findings, Lai is anticipated to experience a resurgence in popularity in December. Concurrently, with Ko’s ratings on the decline, it appears that the electoral landscape is reverting to a traditional battle between the KMT and DPP.
Taiwan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) on Tuesday announced the results of its investigation into the eligibility of candidates. Candidates including Hsiao and Ko’s running mate, Cynthia Wu (吳欣盈) were given the go-ahead to enter the race as they have renounced their U.S. citizenship.
The CEC also on Tuesday announced the financial disclosures of the presidential and vice presidential candidates. The announcement revealed that all candidates have no debt, mortgages excepted. The DPP’s Lai has a mortgage of 13.86 million New Taiwan dollars ($450,000), and the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) has the most savings at 39.58 million NTD ($1.3 million), while the TPP’s Ko has 24.64 million NTD ($800,000) in savings. Ko’s running mate Cynthia Wu’s finances drew attention given her assets — a Mini Cooper car, a piece of land in New Taipei City, securities worth 36,713,090 NTD ($1,170,045), two insurance policies, one set of sapphire jewelry valued at 8 million NTD ($254,924), along with property in the U.K. — and 10 million NTD ($320,000) worth of debt. However, according to a CNA report, one Taiwanese media personality said Wu failed to declare the properties of her Belgian spouse, who is a senior director at a Swiss energy group. Wu’s spokesperson told the media that due to the rushed registration timeline and the complexity of the information involved, they were unable to process this in a short amount of time. They are now being helped by a legal team to liaise with the CEC regarding follow-up reporting on the assets of her foreign spouse.
The CEC will hold a lottery on December 11 to determine the order of the candidates’ names on the ballot. The finalized candidate list will be announced December 15.
According to a report via CNA’s website Focus Taiwan, observers suggest that the ruling DPP is likely to lose its majority in the upcoming legislative elections. Potential scenarios include a hung legislature with the TPP holding a pivotal role or an outright majority for the KMT. Concerns for the DPP arise due to constituents experiencing fatigue with the DPP governance after its almost eight years in power. The TPP’s chairman, Ko Wen-je, could play a crucial role in the legislative elections. And China’s potential interference adds a further layer of complexity, with the election being framed around the China question and the choice between war and peace.
Taiwan AI Labs released an election disinformation report on Wednesday. Their analysis of trending topics on social media found that popularity for the KMT’s Hou increased after talks between the TPP and KMT to form a pan-blue coalition failed, based on data from November 23 to November 30, while criticism of Ko and the TPP increased. Taiwan AI Labs founder Ethan Tu (杜奕瑾) added that, before the coalition talks fell apart, more attacks were targeted at the KMT, and Ko’s popularity was higher.
Here are the latest polls for this week:
From My-Formosa’s latest poll, support for the DPP’s Lai-Hsiao ticket increased by 0.4% to 40.5%, support for the KMT’s Hou-Jaw fell 0.8% to 30.8%, and support for Ko-Wu of the TPP went up 1.5% to 16.3%. The percentage of undecided voters went down 1% to 12.5%. This is the first time a candidate in this election has achieved ratings above 40% in My-Formosa’s polls since the sets of candidates officially registered for Taiwan’s presidential election.
In My-Formosa’s poll, 24.9% of respondents said they were DPP supporters, 20.9% said they were KMT supporters, while 7.9%. supported the TPP.
ETtoday reports for support for Lai-Hsiao of the DPP rose 1.6% to 39%, support for the KMT’s Hou-Jaw dipped 2.5% to 33.8%, and support for Ko-Wu of the TPP declined 1.5% to 18.1%. The percentage of undecided voters increased by 2.4% to 9.1%. ETtoday said Lai and Hsiao scored highest on likeability, at 38.7%, with Hou and Jaw at 32.9%, and Ko and Wu at 20.4%. Ko and Wu were the most disliked (43.8%), followed by Hou and Jaw (39.1%), and Lai and Hsiao (36.9%).
Polling survey methods:
My-Formosa, which conducts a rolling tracking poll, conducted surveys via landline phones from July 17, 2023 to January 12, 2024. During 2023, polls have been conducted in waves of three consecutive days, with 400 people successfully surveyed per day, meaning at least 1,200 people have been surveyed per wave. In January, polls will be conducted in waves of two consecutive days, with 500 people successfully surveyed per day, so at least 1,000 people will be surveyed per wave. My-Fomorsa says it collected 1,201 valid samples for the current wave, with a 95% confidence level. The sampling error was plus or minus 2.8%.
ETtoday uses text messages targeting people aged 20 and above. The messages are invitations to participate in a closed online survey. The sample involved people aged 20 and above with household registrations in Taiwan, selected from ETtoday’s membership database. The sampling method used is called “proportionate stratified sampling,” with samples taken from different groups based on household registration, gender and age, in proportion to the population. 1,251 valid samples were collected for the current wave, with a 95% confidence level. The sampling error was plus or minus 2.77%.
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