Two of China’s top generals, Zhang Youxia (張又俠) and Liu Zhenli (劉振立), apparently did not attend a gathering of all of China’s senior political leaders on Tuesday. Their absence has fired the starting pistol on speculation they have been purged, speculation that will now continue until confirmation or they appear in public.
The event in question was the catchily titled Study Session for Principal Officials at the Provincial and Ministerial Level on Studying and Implementing the Spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. President Xi Jinping (習近平) attended and gave an opening speech, flanked by all six members of the Politburo Standing Committee as well as the vice president.
Eagle-eyed observers quickly noticed that while the second-ranked Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Shengmin (張升民) was sat in the audience, Zhang Youxia, who is the first-ranked vice chairman, and Liu Zhenli, who is the only non-ranking member, both appeared to be absent.
The Central Military Commission is a body that oversees China’s military, chaired by Xi himself. At the start of its current term in 2022, it had seven members, but three have been purged since, an unprecedented state of affairs. Oceans of ink have since been spilled analyzing whether these purges strengthen or weaken China’s military.
Interestingly, the Chinese military’s own media network reported that the vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission attended the study session.
The Central Military Commission was previously composed of a mix of two different factions, both connected to Xi: the Shaanxi Gang and the Fujian Clique. After the recent purges, the Fujian Clique has been entirely removed. Zhang Youxia is seen as the most senior figure in the Shaanxi Gang. The extent to which the purges have been the result of factional warfare is poorly understood.
There are two signals to watch here. If Zhang and Liu appear at public events, it can be assumed that they haven’t been purged and are not under investigation. If they do not, speculation will continue and will slowly increase, especially if they are absent from significant events.
It must be noted that health concerns would provide an alternate explanation for the absence of one or both.
If these generals are in trouble then it would probably leak from those in the know in Washington, sooner rather than later. Confirmation from China would come significantly after that.
These rumors about purged generals have not always been borne out. But more often than not in the last four years, they have. Watch this space.
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