China’s Taiwan Affairs Office last week contested the validity of Taiwan’s “prohibited” (禁止水域) and “restricted” waters (限制水域) around the Kinmen area, after two Chinese nationals died when their speed boat capsized while being chased by Taiwan’s Coast Guard near the island of Kinmen on February 14. Then on Monday, the Chinese coast guard sent four vessels to the area around Kinmen, and Chinese coast guard personnel briefly boarded a Taiwanese cruise ship for security checks, an action seen as part of a new approach by China to rattle the Taiwanese.
Before this latest round of gray zone activity, flights by Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan’s air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) had already become normalized. Then, at the start of 2024, China decided to mix things up a bit with the addition of balloons.
But this week’s incident is definitely not the first time China has used gray zone tactics in waters near Taiwan. At around 8 a.m. on September 29, 2023, the Hsinchu Coast Guard (新竹海巡隊) found a Chinese fishing boat conducting illegal operations near Hsinchu and Miaoli. The steel-hulled vessel refused to allow the Taiwan Coast Guard to board and inspect it about 11 nautical miles northwest of Hsinchu and attempted to escape.
Two Coast Guard vessels pursued the fishing boat for about half an hour. In the process, one Coast Guard vessel was hit by the Chinese boat, causing deformation and damage to its portside railing, broken glass in the pilot house and the detachment of lighting fixtures, but no injuries to the crew.
From these incidents, we can clearly see that Chinese gray zone tactics which employ ostensibly civilian vessels are cheap and less likely to result in casualties. The Taiwanese authorities have an incentive to avoid taking actions that would escalate the situation. Expect to see more such gray zone activities in waters near Taiwan this year, as China attempts to normalize such tactics as when a Chinese Coast Guard boat teams with sporadically placed Chinese fishing boats in offshore areas near Kinmen, Matsu, or even Penghu, a popular vacation destination for Taiwanese people.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office has already stated that there are no “prohibited” or “restricted” waters in the area near Kinmen and the Chinese city of Xiamen (金廈水域). And the Chinese coast guard has already announced that it will begin to conduct regular law enforcement and patrol operations in the area. This suggests Beijing may seek to orchestrate and exploit incidents that arise from maritime law enforcement to further merge existing gray zone conflicts with legal warfare, or “lawfare,” on Taiwan.
Although Taiwan’s military on Wednesday said it has no intention to “directly intervene” in the ongoing dispute with China, it is important for Taiwan to be vigilant in dealing with issues such as human trafficking, smuggling and other illicit activities originating from China.
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