In announcing his bid for the presidency this week, billionaire businessman Terry Gou (郭台銘) turned inwards, speaking to his fellow opposition candidates about the need to line up behind his candidacy. This was in marked contrast to Lai Ching-te (賴清德), the candidate for the current Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government, who has spent the last few weeks speaking to those outside Taiwan about how he sees its future.
Lai kicked off his outward-facing pitch with an article in the Wall Street Journal last month. The key content here, repeatedly emphasizing “peace and stability,” was a “four-pillar plan for peace”: building up Taiwan’s deterrence; building economic security — particularly diversifying trade away from reliance on China; forming partnerships with democracies around the world; and offering “steady and principled cross-strait leadership” while “support[ing] the cross-strait status quo.”
The explanation for the last of those pillars is the most contentious. Lai wrote that he would “never rule out the possibility of dialogue without preconditions,” but critiqued the so-called “1992 consensus.” Broadly seen as “an understanding reached in a 1992 meeting between Taiwan’s then-ruling [Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)] and Beijing that both sides recognize there is only ‘one China,’” Lai wrote that “Mr. Xi [Jinping] himself has called [it] a road map for unification.” This positions Lai directly at odds with KMT candidate Hou You-yi (侯友宜), who said in July that he supported the “1992 consensus” as long as it was compatible with the Republic of China (ROC) Constitution.
After that article came a speech during a stop off in the U.S., sandwiched between remarks about his trip to Paraguay. The remarks before and after the Paraguay trip focused on “strengthen[ing] the friendship between Taiwan and Paraguay” within a framework of expanding relationships with others who share Taiwan’s values of “freedom, democracy, and respect for human rights.” But the U.S. speech had quite a different emphasis.
In the U.S., on top of obligatory references to Taiwan’s vibrant democracy and the ambition to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the global democratic community, Lai gave notably detailed examples of the connection between Silicon Valley and Taiwan’s tech industry. He noted how 36 percent of the iPhone’s components in terms of cost are made in Taiwan, 75 percent of Tesla’s automotive parts are provided by Taiwanese manufacturers, over 80 percent of the world’s notebook computers come from Taiwan, and 90 percent of the global market for servers used in generative AI is held by Taiwan.
The point here, as he replaced the catchphrase “peace and stability” with “peace and prosperity,” was emphasizing that Taiwan is a materially valuable partner for the U.S., not just a militarily or ideologically important one. He knows this is an idea that may appeal to some audiences.
The final exercise in the recent run of reaching out came last Friday, when Lai met members of the foreign press at a special event organized by the Taiwan Foreign Correspondents’ Club (台灣外國記者會). Here, there was much overlap with the “peace and stability” messages presented elsewhere, with mostly minor additions such as listing “sustainability” as a key value alongside the usual “respect for human rights [and] democracy.” However, speaking via English translator, there were a couple of interesting expansions on ideas mentioned in the Q and A session.
First, he went into some detail about enhancing economic relations with Australia, in a way that suggests previous talk of bilateral partnerships is concrete, rather than some vague aspiration. Australia is accomplished in producing green hydrogen energy, he noted in response to a question from Australian Broadcasting Corporation, saying he looked forward to cooperating more on hydrogen energy. Taiwan is also into the second round of negotiations with the U.S. on the “U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade,” and has signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.K. on cooperating over health issues, he said, before adding he hoped for a similar deepening of relations with Australia.
Lastly, and most pointedly, Lai added a little more weight to his cautious Wall Street Journal point on the “1992 consensus,” in response to a question about his opponents wanting more dialogue and exchanges with China. “China has preconditions of accepting ‘One China’ or the ‘1992 consensus,’” he pointed out, and thus: “I think if we lose our sovereignty, even if we have more exchanges and more cooperation, I do not think it would be true peace. My four pillars for peace [are] based on the foundation that we can protect our own sovereignty. We have actually opened the door for more exchange cooperation across the strait with China, but this needs to be based on the preconditions of parity and dignity — and we also wish to enhance the welfare of both peoples across the strait.”
Even these, of course, are small additions. But that itself is probably the main takeaway from all of these outbound messages. Lai is sticking to a very tight line, even during Q and A sessions. He’s no wildcard. While the other presidential candidates are fighting it out with each other, he’s presenting himself as a steady status quo, shuffling around the words “peace,” “stability” and “democracy” in reassuring fashion, all the way to next January.
Image: Kris Lih, Domino Theory
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