Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections take place this Saturday, January 13, with voting beginning at 8 a.m. and ending at 4 p.m. When results come in at around 8 p.m. local time, the world will be watching for the winner of the presidential vote. But there are a number of other important elements to keep an eye on.
Opinion polling conducted before January 3, after which the referencing of polls is forbidden, showed Lai Ching-te (賴清德) of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) with a small lead over Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) of the Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP) had been, since a very public failure to agree a coalition deal with the KMT, sat in a clear third place. However, should that polling prove indicative of the final result, the extent of the victory would become an issue.
“I think If Lai wins like [former president] Chen Shui-bian [陳水扁] did in 2000 with under 40% of the vote, [he] will have less political capital with which to push any policy that might challenge powerful interests in the bureaucracy or economy,” Ben Goren, co-founder and director of communications at the Taiwan Policy Centre, previously told Domino Theory.
That vote share could also prove an issue if it is reflected in the parallel legislative election. If Lai wins the presidency but his party does not win an overall majority in the Legislative Yuan, many believe he might have problems pursuing his policy agenda.
“If one party wins the presidency but is in the minority in the [Legislative Yuan], the president may have a difficult time pushing through their agenda, particularly on issues on which the parties’ positions strongly diverge (e.g. cross-strait policy),” Sara Newland, assistant professor of government at Smith College told Domino Theory via email. “In a divided legislature, the TPP could also potentially maintain significant political power even if Ko does not win the presidency — if their participation is necessary to create a majority coalition in the legislature, they will be able to extract concessions from the party with which they partner.”
The exact positioning of TPP after results come out may be of further interest for long-term reasons. Its leader, Ko Wen-je, has a personal “core support base,” Wei-Ting Yen (顏維婷), assistant professor in the Department of Government at Franklin and Marshall College, explained via email, “so we will not see limited strategic voting happening in the election.” If that assumption proves correct and some of Ko’s support holds up then the exact makeup of Saturday’s results will be important in determining the future trajectory of Taiwan’s relatively new “third party,” even if Ko does not win the presidency.
“Whether the TPP will be able to consolidate voter support *as a party* in the future, especially if Ko is not competitive as a presidential candidate, is an open question,” Newland explained. “One number that might give us insight into that is a comparison of the vote share for Ko on the presidential side versus for TPP candidates on the legislative side. If the candidates from the TPP perform well (perhaps outperforming Ko), that could give us some clues about whether the TPP is likely to remain a force in Taiwan’s politics in the future.”
There are, then, different ways to win and different ways to lose. With the two main parties seemingly offering little to young people at this election, the space for a third party to do well at the next election could be even greater than this time around, and the details of the TPP’s performance here will help determine if it can fill that space.
Beyond that, there remain at least two other issues to look out for below the headline results.
First, 34 members of 113 in Taiwan’s legislature are elected through proportional party list system, and this is seen as an easier target for smaller parties to win seats than through elected in single-member constituencies. Thus, this is one place to look for smaller, underlying currents in Taiwanese politics.
Currently the only party outside of the DPP, KMT and TPP to hold seats in the legislature is the independence-leaning New Power Party (NPP), which has three (from Taiwan’s party list system). There is a question about whether the NPP can maintain that position or whether other parties, such as the Green Party, can make progress.
“The current electoral rules are not good for the small parties, and I don’t see much momentum/space for anything other than DPP, KMT and TPP. But for diversity and inclusivity, surely it’s nice to have a more balanced legislature,” Hsu Ching-Fang (許菁芳) told Domino Theory by email. “I’m not very positive on this, but this is something I’ll be looking at on election day.”
Finally, 73 members of Taiwan’s parliament are elected in single-member constituencies, and there are a diverse range of issues that will play out around individual candidates, particularly in tighter races.
“There are … dozens of key constituencies that are swinging, either moving from blue to green, or moving from green to blue,” Hsu explained. “I’ll be looking closely at the 5th district in Taipei City, the 8th and 12th in New Taipei City, and the 6th in Kaohsiung. In these districts, the DPP candidates are the so-called Sunflower Movement generation, while two of them (Wu Cheng [吳崢] and Huang Jie [黃捷]) were affiliated with the New Power Party previously. I myself am actually voting in the 12th district in New Taipei City [and] would be happy to support the presiding legislator Lai Pin-Yu (賴品妤). She’s young and energetic, an inspiring woman.”
These issues won’t capture international headlines, but they will tell us more about what Taiwanese voters are thinking than simply who gets over the line for the presidency, and may also offer hints about where Taiwan will go next.
Photo: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP
Leave a Reply