When Xi Jinping (習近平) brings up Taiwan at his meeting with Donald Trump on Thursday, the U.S. response must consider one thing: any outcome where the Chinese Communist Party ends up controlling Taiwan would be a disaster for Trump’s legacy.
Imagine the histories of modern Asia published a century from now. During every presidency from the 1990s to Trump’s second term, from Clinton to Obama to Biden, Taiwan governed itself democratically. Under every president after Trump, Taiwan lived under CCP rule. There is no world in which future historians look kindly on such a fact.
Above all else, Trump is concerned with winning. Dangling U.S. support for Taiwan in his meeting with Xi might let Trump claim a few short-term wins. But if what he cares about is how he will be remembered, he should prioritize nothing above protecting Taiwan. You don’t end up on Mount Rushmore by being the guy who let a thriving democracy and its world-leading chip fabs fall into enemy hands.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried on Saturday to assuage fears that Trump will gamble Taiwan away during his meeting with Xi tomorrow. “If what people are worried about is we’re going to get some trade deal where we’re going to get favorable treatment on trade in exchange for walking away from Taiwan — no one is contemplating that,” Rubio said.
To be sure, it’s hard to imagine that Trump would ever consider trading one billion dollars of soybeans for Taiwan. But sacrificing Taiwan need not happen in economic terms, especially when Trump’s legacy is on the table.
During their meeting tomorrow or sometime else, Xi could convince Trump to strike a deal that trades away Taiwan’s sovereignty. If the trade is framed by Xi as another “prevented war,” Trump might find this compelling. He has not been coy about his desire to win a Nobel Peace Prize for these victories.
Trump has already shown a willingness to scale back commitments to Taiwan. In July, the administration quietly urged Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) to scrap his transit through New York during a planned trip to Latin America. This summer, Trump declined to approve more than $400 million in military aid to Taiwan, and slapped a 20% tariff on most Taiwanese goods in August (higher than Japan and South Korea’s 15%).
President Lai’s suggestion earlier this month that Trump could win the Nobel “if he is able to convince Xi Jinping to permanently renounce the use of force against Taiwan” was a cringe-worthy attempt to flip the script. It’s highly unlikely that Xi would agree to this. Even if he did, China could still use non-military coercion to take over Taiwan.
The fight over Taiwan is a zero-sum game. It’s either under CCP rule or it isn’t. The free world learned the hard way with Hong Kong that there is no such thing as “one country, two systems.” There is no such thing as a stable compromise. Eventually, the CCP would totally strip the Taiwanese of their democracy.
Xi famously said in 2019 that the “problem” of Taiwan cannot be “passed down from one generation to the next.” Taking Taiwan would be Xi’s crowning achievement. It would elevate him far above Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) and make him the equal of Mao, who won the Chinese Civil War against the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), but couldn’t conquer Taiwan.
It would make Xi, in other words, the clear winner.
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