Situated next to China, North Korea and Russia, Japan will be right in the middle of a conflict sparked by any Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan. Such a conflict could easily become World War III, and that’s why Japan’s government now wants to double its military’s funding to make it the world’s third-biggest military budget.
After World War II, Japan was permitted by its post-war constitution to possess only the minimum military capacity required for self-defense. That prohibition is now being left behind. In a historic move, the Japanese government announced on November 16 that it will spend $320 billion in the next five years to buy long-range missiles and prepare its forces for sustained conflict. The announcement follows another move earlier this year in which Japan agreed to a $23 billion deal to buy 105 cutting-edge F-35 stealth fighter jets from the U.S.
The new plan will double Japan’s military budget to 2% of its GDP, making it the third-biggest military budget in the world after that of the U.S. and China. Much of the money will be used to buy and develop long-range missiles that can hit missile bases in China, North Korea and Russia.
Tokyo says the historic move to expand its military was taken because of increasing Chinese aggression toward Taiwan and inflammatory maneuvers by Chinese aircraft and warships around Japan’s southern islets, which are also claimed by China. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also shocked Japan, as it shows that decades of rules-based behavior by great powers can suddenly be overturned. The fact that Russian and Chinese naval and air forces recently held joint exercises around Japan’s waters also factored into Japan’s calculation that it would have to quickly expand its military.
Japan fears that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would prompt China to invade Taiwan, a move that would threaten Japan’s strategically important southern islets while also disrupting its supply of Taiwan-made advanced semiconductors and strangling the sea lanes that Japan rely on for its exports and supply of oil from the Middle East. Many analysts say China is openly preparing to invade Taiwan, and some say that could happen as soon as 2027, or even earlier.
Earlier this year, Japan agreed to buy more than 100 of the U.S.’ top secret new F-35 stealth fighters. The biggest advantage of the F-35 design is that it would allow Japan’s F-35s to instantly link up with U.S. F-35s in the region to create vast groups of data-linked fighters that would theoretically destroy anything an enemy can throw at them. Like the U.S.’ Aegis warships, F-35 stealth fighters from different allied countries are designed to connect into one network and share sensor data and targeting information, so as to maximize the damage their missiles can do to enemy missiles and fighters. By buying the F-35, Japan does not just get the jets but also the accompanying in-cockpit access to the U.S.’ massive communications, targeting and tracking network that reaches from the U.S.’ warships and warplanes into outer space.
Japanese F-35s from Japanese amphibious assault ships and air bases would be able to join up with U.S. F-35s based at U.S. air bases situated in southern Japan before combining with more F-35s based on U.S. aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships. From the south of Japan, these large formations of F-35s would be able to quickly reach Taiwan and create air superiority over the Taiwan Strait, if China sends an invasion force toward Taiwan.
In addition to a comprehensive U.S. commitment to defend Japan, Tokyo signed a defense pact with the U.K. earlier this year. Japan also recently agreed to merge its program to develop a sixth-generation A.I. stealth fighter by 2035 with a U.K. program to develop a very similar jet with Italy. The deal will allow the three countries to spread the jet’s massive development costs and save billions. Additionally, Japan signed an upgraded defense agreement with Australia in October and is working to strengthen defense alliances with India, Germany and France.
Image: U.S. Navy
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