Look. Last time U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) met, Domino Theory covered the immediate aftermath of the summit and published this immortal headline: “Taiwan Emerges Largely Unscathed.”
Hours later, Trump conducted what was effectively a drive-by shooting on the U.S.’s Taiwan Relations Act, saying that arms sales were “a very good negotiating chip.”
So trying to draw conclusions before the summit is even over, and before Trump has had time to air his public thoughts on his private conversations with Xi, is probably a fool’s game.
But this is an age of foolishness.
And we hate to say it. But so far, it kind of seems like Taiwan is emerging largely unscathed.
We don’t have a readout from the American side. We have a Chinese one, we have plenty of coverage by Chinese state media, and we have public remarks from Xi and from Trump.
The Chinese readout contains one short paragraph on Taiwan. The key line appears to be: “It is hoped that the U.S. side will adhere to the correct position of opposing ‘Taiwan independence.’”
The U.S.’s longstanding position is that it does not support Taiwanese independence, an important distinction from opposing it. But that language was deleted from the State Department website at the start of Trump’s second term. China started asking the U.S. to move from “not supporting” to “opposing” a year ago.
The Chinese readout also says handling the Taiwan issue with care will lay a “solid foundation for China-U.S. strategic cooperation and the development of bilateral relations.” Much softer language than in May, when the readout said if the issue was not handled properly, “the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.”
Whether the language is more measured because Beijing feels its position is weakened, or because it believes it has already moved Washington to more advantageous ground is an interesting question.
There was no explicit mention of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, something China wants ended. Xi didn’t mention Taiwan at all in his public speech, and Chinese media did not dwell on the topic, just covering the same ground the readout does.
Arguably the most interesting line in Xi’s remarks was his conclusion.
“Achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and Making America Great Again can go hand in hand.” This “great rejuvenation” phrase can mean many things related to improving China’s national power and prosperity; annexing Taiwan is one of them. Tying it to MAGA explicitly could be an attempt to arouse sympathy from Trump. It’s certainly something to watch.
There is still a final day of Xi’s visit to get through. And then Trump’s aftermath. But so far, for Taiwan, it’s largely unscathed.
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