China shocked many yesterday when it said its navy would conduct exercises with Indonesia in the waters east of Taiwan. Now, Indonesia has confirmed the plan.
The exercise will involve the Chinese frigate Honghe and the Indonesian frigate KRI I Gusti Ngurah Rai. China’s Ministry of National Defense said in a press release that the exercise would take place in mid-August and would focus on “communication drills and at-sea replenishment.” The Indonesian navy confirmed today that it was conducting exercises with “the countries it passes through.”
“The passing exercises being conducted are not warfighting exercises, but rather a universal naval tradition carried out when a naval vessel transits the waters of another country,” said Tunggul, the head of Indonesia’s Naval Information Service, in a statement obtained by Domino Theory, which has been separately publicized by Indonesian media Republika Online but not yet officially released. Like many Indonesians, Tunggul goes by a single name.
The waters to the east of Taiwan have been heating up. China has been operating coast guard patrols that started in June but have continued, in an apparent attempt to undermine Taiwanese sovereignty. Analysts like Ray Powell have even suggested it is the beginning of a quarantine effort to exert control over commercial shipping around Taiwan.
The statement by the Indonesian navy suggests that it recognizes the waters in question as Chinese. But it’s not only Taiwanese sovereignty that is threatened.
In May, Japan and the Philippines announced they would begin negotiations to delimit the maritime boundary of their exclusive economic zones. At the moment, Japan claims the northern part of the waters east of Taiwan, and the Philippines the southern part, but their claims overlap each other. Taiwan and China claim the entirety of these eastern waters.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said today that it had sought clarification from all parties involved and requested Indonesia to provide further details. The Mainland Affairs Council, the Taiwanese body that handles relations with China, said yesterday that China is “attempting to create the illusion in the international community that the CCP has jurisdiction over the waters east of Taiwan.”
The relevant vessel was currently 70 to 80 nautical miles off Taiwan’s east coast, Taiwan’s assistant deputy chief of the general staff for intelligence, Wu Tien-jen (吳天任), told the legislature this morning, according to Reuters. Wu said it was on its way back from Japan.
This matches the I Gusti Ngurah Rai, which conducted exercises with the Japanese navy near Tokyo on August 8. The frigate had been in Vladivostok prior to that, where it conducted exercises with the Russian navy.
Ship tracking website Cruising Earth placed the I Gusti Ngurah Rai 80 nautical miles east of Taitung on Taiwan’s southeast coast this morning, and heading south. This not only matches Wu’s description, it also suggests that either an exercise has already taken place, or that the I Gusti Ngurah Rai would soon have to turn or at least stop; otherwise it would leave waters that could comfortably be described as “east of Taiwan.”
There are no public data for the location of the Honghe.
If Indonesia does participate in a military exercise with China in these waters, it will not only be joining China’s effort to undermine Taiwanese sovereignty, it could also complicate Jakarta’s relationship with Tokyo, Manila or both.
Relations with Japan or the Philippines would likely not be negatively impacted in the immediate aftermath, said Trystanto Sanjaya, a visiting fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs who focuses on regional security in the Indo-Pacific.
However, he pointed out that Tokyo and Manila consider a potential conflict over the Taiwan Strait a risk to their own security, and that concerns over Indonesia’s potential alignment with China on Taiwan “could well enter their calculus due to Indonesia’s strategic waterways through which a majority of China’s crude oil imports pass.”
The naval element is particularly interesting given the Philippines has recently agreed to acquire warships that Japan is retiring, and Indonesia is in discussions to do the same. But Indonesia is also planning to buy Chinese fighter jets. Jakarta has a lot of partners to keep happy.
Domino Theory also reached out to Ratih Kabinawa, an Indonesian Taiwan specialist and current visiting research fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, to ask about the implications of Indonesia conducting military exercises with China in Japan’s or the Philippines’ exclusive economic zones.
“Partner countries must seek coordination and not get trapped in China’s geopolitical propaganda,” she said.
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